This paper is published in Volume-12, Issue-5, 2026
Area
Computer Science And Engineering
Author
Venkata Maheswara Rao Atchula, Dr. Pawan Kumar Pareek
Org/Univ
Nirwan University, Jaipur Rajasthan, India
Pub. Date
16 October, 2026
Paper ID
V12I5-1189
Publisher
Keywords
Bollinger Bands, Mean Reversion, Machine Learning, Signal Validation, Algorithmic Trading, Feature Engineering, Multi-Timeframe Analysis, Backtesting, and Strategy-Dependent Validation.

Citationsacebook

IEEE
Venkata Maheswara Rao Atchula, Dr. Pawan Kumar Pareek. Evaluating Machine Learning Signal Validation in Bollinger Band Mean-Reversion Trading: A Strategy-Dependent Experimental Study, International Journal of Advance Research, Ideas and Innovations in Technology, www.IJARIIT.com.

APA
Venkata Maheswara Rao Atchula, Dr. Pawan Kumar Pareek (2026). Evaluating Machine Learning Signal Validation in Bollinger Band Mean-Reversion Trading: A Strategy-Dependent Experimental Study. International Journal of Advance Research, Ideas and Innovations in Technology, 12(5) www.IJARIIT.com.

MLA
Venkata Maheswara Rao Atchula, Dr. Pawan Kumar Pareek. "Evaluating Machine Learning Signal Validation in Bollinger Band Mean-Reversion Trading: A Strategy-Dependent Experimental Study." International Journal of Advance Research, Ideas and Innovations in Technology 12.5 (2026). www.IJARIIT.com.

Abstract

Abstract Financial markets exhibit changing volatility and regime-dependent behavior, making the interaction between deterministic trading rules and machine-learning validation an important empirical question. This study evaluates a Bollinger Band Mean Reversion (BBMR) strategy and examines whether a generic machine-learning filtering layer improves the characteristics of its candidate signals. The supplied experimental registry contains 30 independent configurations: five unfiltered baseline configurations and 25 ML-assisted configurations formed by crossing five timeframes—1-minute, 3-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute and 1-hour—with five confidence settings of 0.50, 0.53, 0.55, 0.57 and 0.60. Across the registry, 99,807 recorded orders are reported. The five baseline configurations show a descriptive aggregate win percentage of 66.55% and a row-wise Net Realized sum of 316,612.56. The 25 ML-assisted configurations show a descriptive aggregate win percentage of 19.85% and a row-wise Net Realized sum of -135,285.70. Increasing the ML confidence setting reduces recorded activity from 15,278 orders at 0.50 to 2,373 at 0.60, but the reduction in activity is not accompanied by a corresponding improvement in win percentage or aggregate descriptive profitability. The ML-assisted win percentage remains below the baseline at every tested timeframe, and only the 1-hour ML group has a positive row-wise Net Realized sum. An implementation-level inspection further indicates that the validation feature layer is dominated by generic contextual variables such as moving-average slope, momentum, volatility and risk/reward measures rather than direct Bollinger mean-reversion descriptors. The findings therefore suggest a strategy-dependent limitation: the tested ML filter changes the trade population substantially, but does not improve the evaluated BBMR strategy and may be mismatched to the short-horizon mean-reversion mechanism. The result should not be generalized to all ML methods or all BBMR implementations; it is an empirical finding for the supplied configuration. Keywords: Bollinger Bands, Mean Reversion, Machine Learning, Signal Validation, Algorithmic Trading, Feature Engineering, Multi-Timeframe Analysis, Backtesting, Strategy-Dependent Validation.